PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT INDICATE FUTURE TRENDS

The Colorado Avalanche for two years in a row had great starts to the season.  The Achilles heel for the Avs is the games after the All-Star break.  To start the 2011 season, the Avs are off to a great start again.  The Leafs typically play poorly before the All-Star break, and then over-achieve the rest of the season.  One thing is for certain, past performances do not indicate future trends.  The Maple Leafs have revamped the roster and coaching staff so it would be unfair to suggest the Leafs will repeat the failures of last season.  The Avs have bolstered the goaltending and roster and could sustain the momentum till the end of the season.  It appears that both teams evenly match each other with the marginal advantage given to Toronto.  The season is still early and two young fast skating teams should make for an entertaining hockey game.  If you watch both teams, the key to the game will be the goaltending / defense.  Ultimately, mistakes will cost one team the game.  Which goaltender will start the game for Colorado and Toronto?  Will we see Giguere against Gustavsson?

NHL SEASON 2010 VS 2011, WHAT HAS CHANGED?

On paper, the Leafs look like they could contend for a playoff spot right?  Isn't that what most people said last year?

Let me list a few points about what the critics said before the 2010 season.

• Forwards need to help Phil Kessel
• Defense needs to play better.
• Need solid goaltending.

Last season, it was predicted Kessel would score 35 goals if he stays healthy.  In fact he scored 32 with no NHL center.  The team had plenty of grinders and tough guys and by committee scored plenty of goals.  The big free agent signing was Colby Armstrong penciled in to play the third line checking role.  Versteeg was synonymous with "key signing" and "big contributions".  Bozak was considered a wildcard and people had faith in his abilities to deliver.  The Kulemin, Grabovski and MacArthur line was strong in preseason and looked like worthy secondary scoring unit.  The bottom six were a mash of pluggers but not many questions existed.

The critics were applauding the Maple Leaf defense corps as one of the better in the East on paper.  In preseaon they performed admirably but as the season progressed, it was clear the team lacked toughness and leadership on the back-end.  This was further magnified when Dion Phaneuf was removed from the lineup due to injury.

Recall:

Dion Phanuef - Francois Beauchemin

Tomas Kaberle - Mike Komisarek

Luke Schenn - Carl Gunnarsson

Jeff Finger

Lebda and Lashoff were injured to start the season.  Komisarek was healthy and predicted to be a big part of the resurgence with the Leafs.  Kaberle would produce at his usual pace.  Schenn & Gunnarsson would try to shut-down other teams.  The biggest concern the critics have known was where the offense would come from and would the defense be tougher to play against.

Giguere was the all-around model player for the Maple Leafs.  He showed leadership and had the hardware to prove he can compete in the playoffs.  The biggest concern was if Gustavsson would live up to his potential.  Giguere played surprisingly well and not many questioned his durability.  Critics believed if the defense faltered, the goaltending would be strong enough to make up the difference.

After another disappointing end to the season, many critics were wondering why the coach did not shoulder more blame from the GM.

The start of the 2011 season has not altered the thinking of what needs to improve.  The scoring, defense, and goaltending all need to improve.  Preseason will give fans and critics a chance to evaluate if the team has made strides to improve in key areas.

Schennsational

I was not surprised with the final negotiations between Luke Schenn / Agent and Maple Leafs and the five year $3.6M cap hit.  Some readers will think that Leafs tried to low-ball the negotiations but I believe Schenn was compensated fairly considering Pavel Kubina $3.85M, Dennis Wideman $3.937M, Christian Erhoff $4M to name a few.

Former Kelona Rockets teammate and Buffalo Sabre Tyler Myers negotiated a contract $5.5M cap hit recently.  The contract awarded to Myers appears high for a relatively unproven player but I could be wrong.  Myers has shown plenty of upside but in my opinion has not proven he deserves a salary in the $5.5M cap hit range.

Drew Doughty and the LA Kings are having difficulties in negotiations since it appears the Kings have offered around $6M cap hit but agent is asking around $7M.  Doughty has played spectacularly well in the Olympics and NHL so awarding him anywhere above $5M is not undeserved.

Chris Campoli Turns Page In Hockey Career

Last year, the Maple Leafs were fortunate enough to land Clarke MacArthur when the Thrashers walked away from the bargaining table.  At the time, captain Dion helped convinced Clarke to sign with Toronto and having very little competition for ice time helped solidify that decision.  Recently, the Blackhawks also walked away from Chris Campoli at the bargaining table because they could not agree on a new contract.

Campoli is an offensive defenseman who like all players of this calibre are prone to defensive errors.

This game seven overtime turnover may have left Campoli out of any future plans in Chicago.

The Mississauga native will surely be interested in playing closer to home and many teams have enquired about the free agent and will most likely start a bidding war for his services.  The arbitration award was $2.5M, which the Blackhawks walked away from.

With the logjam on the blueline for the Maple Leafs, does it make sense to try and sign Chris Campoli?  Burke has claimed many times having depth on defense is important for teams in the playoffs.

14 Reasons Why Steven Stamkos Will Remain In Tampa

Given the quality type player Steven Stamkos is, you would expect many teams would rush to get in an offer sheet for the restricted free agent.  Teams could begin the bidding July 1st, but they also know Tampa Bay had the right to match any offer.

• Any team that submits an offer sheet must have the salary cap space to sign him.  
• A team can only go over $64.3M by 10 percent but only until the start of the regular season.
• A team must have the required draft picks to surrender for compensation (four first-round draft picks)

Essentially, a team is allowed to have their salary cap go as high as $70.73M and then try and get under the salary cap before the start of the regular season.  Saying it and doing it are two very different matters.

Teams currently rumored to be in the hunt for Stamkos include Toronto, New York Rangers, and Calgary.

Toronto will not present an offer sheet to Stamkos because 

• Burke will explore trade options first.
• Leafs do not have the assets to trade for Stamkos.
• Phil Kessel is already on the team, you only have one puck
• $5.8M in cap space with RFA Luke Schenn still waiting for an offer.

New York will not present an offer sheet to Stamkos because 

• Sather tried to acquire Stamkos and admits now the opportunity is lost.
• New York has Richards and Stepan, they need help in other areas.
• Brad Richards is already on the team, you only have one puck
• $12.86M in remaining cap space with RFA Callahan, Boyle and Dubinsky still waiting for an offer.

Calgary will not present an offer sheet to Stamkos because 

• Feaster will explore trade options first.
• Calgary does not have any assets Tampa would accept in a trade.
• Will not be able to convince any team to take Calgary's expensive player contracts. 
• $3.816M in remaining cap space.

The biggest reason teams will not present an offer sheet to Stamkos is

• Tampa can match any offer!  Tampa has $14.8M in cap space left and already have 20 players signed.
• why would ownership want to see him move elsewhere since he is big attraction for the fans?

Can we put the Stamkos offer sheet / trade rumors to rest now?

Everything Old Is New Again

Turn the clock back 1 year ago to July 2010.  The Atlanta Thrashers just completed a trade with the Blackhawks which many consider a brilliant move by Dudley.  However, Atlanta is considered a small market team and operates with a lower budget than most teams.  Colby Armstrong and Clarke MacArthur were not resigned mostly due to economics when both players could come to an agreement with the Thrashers.  Toronto was fortunate to acquire both players.

Dudley is no stranger to small budgets during his stay with Tampa and Florida.  With Toronto, Dudley is now part of a management team that is not afraid to spend money on players.  Although it may seem ironic that MacArthur would have signed for more money than what was offered last year, no one can say Clarke MacArthur did not deserve it.  With Atlanta, Dudley had to make tough calls on who would stay or go.  The depth with the Atlanta Thrashers allowed the team to let both players walk away and replace them from within.  It was a hockey & business decision.  Sometimes, business decisions take more precedence over hockey ones.  Armstrong and MacArthur should feel safe as long as they can contribute to the team success.

Are The 2012 Leafs Playoff Bound?

Can the Maples Leafs make the playoffs this year after all the changes on the team?

If you believe the Leafs will make the playoffs then what team(s) will not?

Here is the 2010 Eastern Conference Regular Season Standings.

 EASTERN                 DIV GP W L OT PTS

1  Z-WASHINGTON       SE 82 48 23 11 107           IMPROVED

2  Y-PHILADELPHIA   ATL 82 47 23 12    106           DECLINED

3  Y-BOSTON                NE 82 46 25 11 103           SAME

4  X-PITTSBURGH        ATL 82 49 25 8 106           IMPROVED++

5  X-TAMPA BAY        SE 82 46 25 11 103           SAME

6  X-MONTRÉAL        NE 82 44 30 8 96             SAME

7  X-BUFFALO         NE 82 43 29 10 96             IMPROVED++

8  X-NY RANGERS        ATL 82 44 33 5 93             IMPROVED+

9  CAROLINA                SE 82 40 31 11 91             SAME

10  TORONTO                NE 82 37 34 11 85             IMPROVED+

11  NEW JERSEY       ATL 82 38 39 5 81             IMPROVED++

12  ATLANTA               SE 82 34 36 12 80             SAME

13  OTTAWA               NE 82 32 40 10 74             SAME

14  NY ISLANDERS       ATL 82 30 39 13 73             SAME

15  FLORIDA               SE 82 30 40 12 72             SAME

- Washington  has added goaltending depth that could see them go far next year.  Playoff bound? YES
- Philadelphia got younger and added goaltending.  This may be a year where the teams needs to fail in order to succeed.  Chances are they will drop in the standings but should still make the playoffs.  Playoff bound? YES
- Boston.  Stanley Cup Champs.  Will they have the desire to repeat or suffer the curse of the Stanley Cup and miss the playoffs?  Boston is a young team and have managed to keep most of their players.  I see no reason why they should not make the playoffs.  Playoffs? YES
- Pittsburgh.  With a healthy Crosby, Malkin and Stall the sky is the limit.  Without Crosby and Malkin the team still made the playoffs.  Playoffs?  YES
- Tampa Bay.  A surprise team for sure.  Stamkos will be back.  Losing Gagne and Bergenheim will hurt but were not considered core pieces.  Tampa plays with good team defense and can win games on special teams.  If Roloson can equal his performance from last season, Tampa Bay will do extremely well.  The team is getting older and lacks depth but special teams is the saving grace.  Playoffs? Maybe
- Montreal.  Losing Wisniewski was offset by getting Markov back.  Adding Cole will make up for the loss of Pouliot and Halpern.  Losing Hamrlik will allow someone to compete for a spot from within.  If Gomez could play to expectations and Eller improves from last season, the Canadiens will improve in the standings.  If Price follows up his great season with a poor one, Montreal could be out of the playoffs.  This is a contract year for Price.  Playoffs? Maybe
- Buffalo.  Adding Leino, Ehrhoff, Regehr to any team will make them better.  Buffalo was already a young and exciting team.  Connolly was lost to FA, but the Sabres can replace his production by committee.  Boyes is low on the team depth chart because the team is stacked with talent.  If Miller plays average, the Sabres will still make the playoffs.  Playoffs? YES
- NY Rangers.  Brad Richards will no doubt help this team overall.  Parting ways with McCabe, Drury also makes the team better.  Losing Gilroy will hurt.  Callahan and Dubinsky will get resigned.  Keeping Frolov and Prospal would add depth.  Lundqvist will continue his spectacular play and keep the Rangers in the hunt.  Playoffs? Maybe.
- Carolina.  The team got older quickly with the additions of Kaberle and  Ponikarovsky.  Losing Cole was offset a little by adding Anthony Stewart.  Tim Brent adds quality depth.  Why are so many ex-Leafs on Carolina?  Carolina will have a very hard time to compete for a playoff spot.  Playoffs? NO
-New Jersey.  Could this be the last season for Martin Brodeur?  If not, this is a contract year and if he plans on playing next year he will need to have another outstanding year.  Parise will get signed and only solidify the core group of players.  This team was light out deadly when all was thought lost they made an unbelievable run for a playoff spot.  The team will definitely make a strong case for playoffs.  Playoffs? YES
- Toronto. Addressed the need for a center by adding two.  Connolly and Lombardi (healthy) add much need depth to the center position.  Liles and Frason add more offensive depth to the blueline.  Resigning MacArthur guarantees the Leafs have good second line attack.  Riemer is believed to be the real deal, and will provide dependable goaltending.  Gustavsson could be the dark-horse and outplay Riemer for the starting position.  With the improved play from the end of the season and the key additions to the rosters, the Leafs should be more competitive.

Playoffs? Are the Leafs are better than Rangers, Tampa Bay and Montreal?  New Jersey will make the playoffs, they are a much better team than the standings show.  If Brad Richards is everything he was advertised to be, then the Rangers will surge in the standings and leapfrog over Montreal but not ahead of Tampa Bay, Buffalo or Philadelphia.  My belief is that the final playoff spot will be a battle between Montreal, Rangers and Toronto.  Do you believe Toronto is a better team than Montreal and the Rangers?  With the additions Toronto has made, they put themselves in a position to be better than both.  The Rangers and Carolina had rookies who had outstanding seasons but most likely will not be able to repeat in the sophomore season.  The Rangers added Richards but lost Drury.  Brad  Richards will not be the savior people are expecting and will suffer under the intense media scrutiny when his production does not exceed or meet expectations.  Montreal did nothing to improve and they were not a bad team to begin with.

2010 Eastern Conference Standings - Final


EASTERN                 DIV
1  WASHINGTON           SE
2  PITTSBURGH        ATL
3  BOSTON                NE
4  PHILADELPHIA       ATL
5  BUFFALO                NE
6  TAMPA BAY        SE
7  NEW JERSEY        ATL
8  TORONTO                NE
9  MONTRÉAL               NE
10  NY RANGERS        ATL
11  WINNIPEG                SE
12 CAROLINA                SE
13  FLORIDA               SE
14 NY ISLANDERS       ATL
15  OTTAWA               NE