14 Reasons Why Steven Stamkos Will Remain In Tampa

Given the quality type player Steven Stamkos is, you would expect many teams would rush to get in an offer sheet for the restricted free agent.  Teams could begin the bidding July 1st, but they also know Tampa Bay had the right to match any offer.

• Any team that submits an offer sheet must have the salary cap space to sign him.  
• A team can only go over $64.3M by 10 percent but only until the start of the regular season.
• A team must have the required draft picks to surrender for compensation (four first-round draft picks)

Essentially, a team is allowed to have their salary cap go as high as $70.73M and then try and get under the salary cap before the start of the regular season.  Saying it and doing it are two very different matters.

Teams currently rumored to be in the hunt for Stamkos include Toronto, New York Rangers, and Calgary.

Toronto will not present an offer sheet to Stamkos because 

• Burke will explore trade options first.
• Leafs do not have the assets to trade for Stamkos.
• Phil Kessel is already on the team, you only have one puck
• $5.8M in cap space with RFA Luke Schenn still waiting for an offer.

New York will not present an offer sheet to Stamkos because 

• Sather tried to acquire Stamkos and admits now the opportunity is lost.
• New York has Richards and Stepan, they need help in other areas.
• Brad Richards is already on the team, you only have one puck
• $12.86M in remaining cap space with RFA Callahan, Boyle and Dubinsky still waiting for an offer.

Calgary will not present an offer sheet to Stamkos because 

• Feaster will explore trade options first.
• Calgary does not have any assets Tampa would accept in a trade.
• Will not be able to convince any team to take Calgary's expensive player contracts. 
• $3.816M in remaining cap space.

The biggest reason teams will not present an offer sheet to Stamkos is

• Tampa can match any offer!  Tampa has $14.8M in cap space left and already have 20 players signed.
• why would ownership want to see him move elsewhere since he is big attraction for the fans?

Can we put the Stamkos offer sheet / trade rumors to rest now?

Are The 2012 Leafs Playoff Bound?

Can the Maples Leafs make the playoffs this year after all the changes on the team?

If you believe the Leafs will make the playoffs then what team(s) will not?

Here is the 2010 Eastern Conference Regular Season Standings.

 EASTERN                 DIV GP W L OT PTS

1  Z-WASHINGTON       SE 82 48 23 11 107           IMPROVED

2  Y-PHILADELPHIA   ATL 82 47 23 12    106           DECLINED

3  Y-BOSTON                NE 82 46 25 11 103           SAME

4  X-PITTSBURGH        ATL 82 49 25 8 106           IMPROVED++

5  X-TAMPA BAY        SE 82 46 25 11 103           SAME

6  X-MONTRÉAL        NE 82 44 30 8 96             SAME

7  X-BUFFALO         NE 82 43 29 10 96             IMPROVED++

8  X-NY RANGERS        ATL 82 44 33 5 93             IMPROVED+

9  CAROLINA                SE 82 40 31 11 91             SAME

10  TORONTO                NE 82 37 34 11 85             IMPROVED+

11  NEW JERSEY       ATL 82 38 39 5 81             IMPROVED++

12  ATLANTA               SE 82 34 36 12 80             SAME

13  OTTAWA               NE 82 32 40 10 74             SAME

14  NY ISLANDERS       ATL 82 30 39 13 73             SAME

15  FLORIDA               SE 82 30 40 12 72             SAME

- Washington  has added goaltending depth that could see them go far next year.  Playoff bound? YES
- Philadelphia got younger and added goaltending.  This may be a year where the teams needs to fail in order to succeed.  Chances are they will drop in the standings but should still make the playoffs.  Playoff bound? YES
- Boston.  Stanley Cup Champs.  Will they have the desire to repeat or suffer the curse of the Stanley Cup and miss the playoffs?  Boston is a young team and have managed to keep most of their players.  I see no reason why they should not make the playoffs.  Playoffs? YES
- Pittsburgh.  With a healthy Crosby, Malkin and Stall the sky is the limit.  Without Crosby and Malkin the team still made the playoffs.  Playoffs?  YES
- Tampa Bay.  A surprise team for sure.  Stamkos will be back.  Losing Gagne and Bergenheim will hurt but were not considered core pieces.  Tampa plays with good team defense and can win games on special teams.  If Roloson can equal his performance from last season, Tampa Bay will do extremely well.  The team is getting older and lacks depth but special teams is the saving grace.  Playoffs? Maybe
- Montreal.  Losing Wisniewski was offset by getting Markov back.  Adding Cole will make up for the loss of Pouliot and Halpern.  Losing Hamrlik will allow someone to compete for a spot from within.  If Gomez could play to expectations and Eller improves from last season, the Canadiens will improve in the standings.  If Price follows up his great season with a poor one, Montreal could be out of the playoffs.  This is a contract year for Price.  Playoffs? Maybe
- Buffalo.  Adding Leino, Ehrhoff, Regehr to any team will make them better.  Buffalo was already a young and exciting team.  Connolly was lost to FA, but the Sabres can replace his production by committee.  Boyes is low on the team depth chart because the team is stacked with talent.  If Miller plays average, the Sabres will still make the playoffs.  Playoffs? YES
- NY Rangers.  Brad Richards will no doubt help this team overall.  Parting ways with McCabe, Drury also makes the team better.  Losing Gilroy will hurt.  Callahan and Dubinsky will get resigned.  Keeping Frolov and Prospal would add depth.  Lundqvist will continue his spectacular play and keep the Rangers in the hunt.  Playoffs? Maybe.
- Carolina.  The team got older quickly with the additions of Kaberle and  Ponikarovsky.  Losing Cole was offset a little by adding Anthony Stewart.  Tim Brent adds quality depth.  Why are so many ex-Leafs on Carolina?  Carolina will have a very hard time to compete for a playoff spot.  Playoffs? NO
-New Jersey.  Could this be the last season for Martin Brodeur?  If not, this is a contract year and if he plans on playing next year he will need to have another outstanding year.  Parise will get signed and only solidify the core group of players.  This team was light out deadly when all was thought lost they made an unbelievable run for a playoff spot.  The team will definitely make a strong case for playoffs.  Playoffs? YES
- Toronto. Addressed the need for a center by adding two.  Connolly and Lombardi (healthy) add much need depth to the center position.  Liles and Frason add more offensive depth to the blueline.  Resigning MacArthur guarantees the Leafs have good second line attack.  Riemer is believed to be the real deal, and will provide dependable goaltending.  Gustavsson could be the dark-horse and outplay Riemer for the starting position.  With the improved play from the end of the season and the key additions to the rosters, the Leafs should be more competitive.

Playoffs? Are the Leafs are better than Rangers, Tampa Bay and Montreal?  New Jersey will make the playoffs, they are a much better team than the standings show.  If Brad Richards is everything he was advertised to be, then the Rangers will surge in the standings and leapfrog over Montreal but not ahead of Tampa Bay, Buffalo or Philadelphia.  My belief is that the final playoff spot will be a battle between Montreal, Rangers and Toronto.  Do you believe Toronto is a better team than Montreal and the Rangers?  With the additions Toronto has made, they put themselves in a position to be better than both.  The Rangers and Carolina had rookies who had outstanding seasons but most likely will not be able to repeat in the sophomore season.  The Rangers added Richards but lost Drury.  Brad  Richards will not be the savior people are expecting and will suffer under the intense media scrutiny when his production does not exceed or meet expectations.  Montreal did nothing to improve and they were not a bad team to begin with.

2010 Eastern Conference Standings - Final


EASTERN                 DIV
1  WASHINGTON           SE
2  PITTSBURGH        ATL
3  BOSTON                NE
4  PHILADELPHIA       ATL
5  BUFFALO                NE
6  TAMPA BAY        SE
7  NEW JERSEY        ATL
8  TORONTO                NE
9  MONTRÉAL               NE
10  NY RANGERS        ATL
11  WINNIPEG                SE
12 CAROLINA                SE
13  FLORIDA               SE
14 NY ISLANDERS       ATL
15  OTTAWA               NE

Leafs Can Roll All Four Lines

The Maple Leafs look very deep and could roll four lines.

Assumptions:
- MacArthur signs
- Schenn signs
- Lombardi is healthy
- Caputi earns a roster spot on 3rd line
- Kadri not demoted to AHL
- Colton Orr on IR / Scratched



FORWARDS (12)

Joffrey Lupul ($4,250,000)         Tim Connolly ($4,750,000)         Phil Kessel ($5,400,000)
- Connolly has the ability to feed Kessel and Lupul and also score himself.  Good defensively, he will be counted on to make this line work.  Only question is can he stay healthy.

Nikolai Kulemin ($2,350,000)   Mikhail Grabovski ($2,900,000)   Clarke MacArthur ($2,900,000)
- This trio just clicked and made life difficult for opponents.  Grabovski needs to improve in faceoffs.

Luca Caputi ($525,000)      Tyler Bozak ($975,000)       Colby Armstrong ($3,000,000)
- If Caputi can manage to stick with Leafs, he can be a useful 3rd line winger molding his game like Armstrong.  Bozak and Armstrong play extremely well together on the PK, so they would make an excellent combo.  With Caputi, this line can add offense and counted on to shut down other top lines.  Bozak has all the offensive tools, just needs to work on his defense.

Mike Brown ($736,667)      Matthew Lombardi ($3,500,000)     Nazem Kadri ($1,720,000)
-Lombardi slotted on fourth line but could easily be on the 1st.  Until we see him play, assume it will take time for Lombardi to find his game.  Kadri is still learning the game but suited better on the wing for now.


DEFENSEMEN (7)

Dion Phaneuf ($6,500,000) John-Michael Liles ($4,200,000)
- This could be good and bad.  Liles was questioned in the media for his weakness on defense, no one will question is offense.  This pairing should be considered an experiment since both can be good on offense and equally porous on defense.

Luke Schenn ($3,933,333)   Cody Franson ($800,000)
- Schenn had a breakthrough year after a horrible 2nd year.  Franson is very quick on his feet for a big man and can lead the offensive rush knowing Schenn can take care of the other end.  Franson, like Liles are not known for their defensive games.

Mike Komisarek ($4,500,000) Carl Gunnarsson ($1,325,000)
-Komisarek should be playing as the top 3rd or 4th defense but he has struggled with the Leafs so far.  At the end of last season, his game started to vastly improve.  For now, he will be top six getting limited ice time.  Gunnarsson and Aulie were both given plenty of opportunity and showed they can handle the rigors of the NHL.  Aulie, could take a step back in his second season and might get passed by Gunnarsson on the depth chart.

Keith Aulie ($733,333)

GOALTENDERS (2)
James Reimer ($1,800,000)
Jonas Gustavsson ($1,350,000)
- Reimer has proven himself in the ECHL, AHL and now the NHL.  Can he live up to the high expectations in his second season?  Gustavsson may be proven in Sweden, but has not proven himself in North America.  With the Marlies, once he returned from injuries, he played extremely well before getting called up by the Leafs.  Hopefully Gustavsson can learn from Reimer and not explode after letting in a goal.

BUYOUTS (1)
Darcy Tucker ($1,000,000)

Leafs Acquire John-Michael Liles

Tomas Kaberle was traded to Boston for prospect Joe Colborne, 1st round draft pick (30th overall), and Boston's 2nd round pick in 2012.  Burke has managed to turn the conditional pick into John Michael Liles.

Trade now breaks down to this:

Toronto Acquired:

1. Joe Colborne (2008 1st round, 16th overall)
2. 2011 1st round pick, 30th overall
3. John-Michael Liles (2000 159th overall)

Boston Acquired:

1. Tomas Kaberle (1996 204th overall)

Colorado Acquired:

1. Boston 2012 2nd round pick

John-Michael Liles is on the last year of his contract and was battling a concussion, he will be looking to perform well in a contract year.  Despite the shortened season, Liles put up good numbers for an offensive defenseman with 76-6-40.  JML adds more than offense to the back-end for the Leafs, he could be a big boon to the Leafs by adding the offensive presence on the back end and his quick puck moving skills.  His speed will allow the team to utilize their speed and skill.  The passing skill on the blueline jumped up exponentially.  The power play will improve greatly now that JML can quarterback.

Rick Dudley Added To Leafs Management Team

Wow!  Rick Dudley was recently let go from his job with Atlanta when the team was relocated to Winnipeg.  The "Jets" loss is the Leafs gain!  Dudley was the chief architect in creating the Tampa Bay team that won the cup in 2004.  When he landed in Chicago, he was instrumental in building up the Blackhawks to make their cup run in 2010.  With Atlanta, the team is already starting to look like a cup contender with many pieces in place.  I certainly hope the Leafs scouting staff, Nonis and Burke use Dudley to help them with the 2011 NHL entry draft!

Star Reporter Kevin McGran Calling Into Question Brian Burke Drafting Success

Prior to reading the article "Burke's NHL draft record: feast or famine", I was hoping something useful could be taken away for reflection.  Instead, it appears to be another anti Brian Burke article from Toronto sports media.  I tend to dislike articles that attempt to add substance by adding statistics but forget to add impartiality.  Essentially, the article says Burke's drafting record is under .500, and previous GM JFJ had better results drafting.  Nowhere was mentioned how other GM's compared against Burke so the reader must assume .500 mark is the standard.  What about teams that prefer to tank for five years and then make a run for the cup?  Should a Detroit or NJ GM's have a better record than .500 if they continually finish in the top of the league standings?

Kevin McGran seems to think

0.5*[Quality GM] + 0.5*[High Draft Pick] = [NHL Player]


I would argue the formula is not so simple.

0.5*[Player Development] + 0.25*[Quality Scouting Staff] +  0.15*[High Draft Pick] + 0.1*[Quality GM] +  = [NHL Player]


Player Development has many components and singularly the most important to ensure a draft pick reaches the NHL.

Diamond In The Rough

His resume reads that he was selected in the first round and seventh overall in the 2001 NHL entry draft.   In 2000-01 he earned CCHA All-Rookie Team honours and the next year earned CCHA First Team All-Star and NCAA West First All-American Team honours.  Twice selected to the USA World Junior team in 2001 and 2002.  Help lead this AHL affiliate in 2002-03 to the AHL Calder Cup final.  In 2003, was selected to the AHL All-Rookie Team.

The son of immigrant parents, he is fist generation for his family in North America.  Losing his mother to pancreatic cancer in November 2005 at the young age of 51 was hard while still having to battle for a job in the NHL.

You probably guessed by now the player is Mike Komisarek.  Komisarek never dazzled opponents with his slick skating or deft stick handling but rather forged a reputation as a hard-hitting, stay-at-home defenseman.   In Montreal, Mike Komisarek was a fan favorite for sticking up for his teammates.  Brian Burke saw that Mike Komisarek played a simple game and signed the UFA to a five year deal to start building his defense core.  After suffering a devastating shoulder injury, he still wanted to play for his country in the Olympics but was denied by his GM due to long term health reasons.  Mike Komisarek  recovered from the the shoulder injury to start the 2010-11 season but having to endure a long rehabilitation appears to have altered his confidence on the ice.  The little mistakes started to snowball from day one and soon enough the avalanche was in full effect.  Maple Leaf coach Ron Wilson was taking a beating in the media for playing Komisarek and eventually Mike saw less minutes per game.  The less Komisarek played, the more amplified his mistakes on the ice were portrayed in the media.  Komisarek has faced adversity many times before outside of hockey and he will rebound again, his resume proves it.  No one should be surprised if Mike Komisarek plays a top four role and proves Brian Burke was correct to sign him as a core player envisioned with the Toronto Maple Leafs.