Hope Still Exists For Maple Leafs To Qualify For Playoffs

With under ten games, the Maple Leafs hold a distinct advantage over the teams ahead of them when looking at back-to-back games.  The Leafs only have one back-to-back set of games remaining with the others having two or more.  The Rangers have 2 back-to-back games remaining with 8 points at stake.  Buffalo and Carolina have 4 back-to-back remaining with 16 points at stake.

Assuming theses teams lose one game in each back-to-back, same winning percentage over last 10 games,  the final standing could still see the Leafs out of the playoffs.

(Points complied in a non scientific way and purely hypothetical, calculation omitted)


                    Previous L10       %GR               PTS
NY RANGERS  .700                        .500                   92
BUFFALO     .650                        .389                   88
CAROLINA      .550                        .334                   84
TORONTO     .550                       .500                 84


For Toronto to finish with 84 pts, they would need 8 pts over 8 games ( 4-4-0 ) which is very reasonable.  If the Maple Leafs could win two more games (6-2-0), they could potentially be tied with Buffalo for the 8th playoff spot assuming Buffalo struggles with the back-to-back games.

Cross your fingers.

WEEK March 21- 27
@ Wild  ***WIN***
@ Avalanche (must win)
@ Red Wings (possible loss)

WEEK March 28 - 2
VS Sabres (must win)
@ Bruins (must win)
@ Senators (must win)

MONTH April
VS Capitals (possible loss)
@ Devils (must win)
VS Canadiens (must Win)

Do The Leafs Get The Point?

Many Islanders and Maple Leafs contests do not conjure ideas of epic battles on ice.  On this night, both hockey teams are considered to be non-playoff bound despite being mathematically alive.  The Islanders know the remaining games are to showcase for next year.  The Leafs are playing their remaining games with the hope sneaking into the post-season.  Clearly, the Leafs had more to lose than the Islanders.  The bottom six players for the Leafs led the Maple Leaf charge, too bad the top six could not pull their weight.  On this night, it was the Islanders who played with more desperation and desire in front of a home crowd.  The game could have been sealed early if not for the numerous pucks hitting the goal posts behind Reimer.  The Leafs were very lucky to walk away with a single point.  Fortunately for the Leafs, Buffalo and New Jersey lost their games.  The Leafs provided no compelling reason to leave with the single point but they will consider themselves lucky.  Time to get ready for a motivated Philadelphia team with Jeff Carter and vivid memory of defeat against the Leafs.  Against the Flyers, can the Leafs get lucky again?

Looking For More Options On Power Play

More options on the powerplay will make it harder for the other teams to shut down.

For the Maple Leafs, they like to use Dion Phaneuf at the point to use his shot from the point.  Many teams know this and are ready to defend this.  The Maple Leafs have tried to use someone in front of the net helps but having two forwards in front makes it easier to defend against.

The better special teams use different looks with the man advantage and mix in a forward to quarterback the powerplay below the red line or from the corner.  Using the corners allows for the defense to sneak into the play at the same time still provides a quick outlet to the near point for a quick one-timer.   Having a player at all times in front of the net keeps  the defending teams from vacating the area and giving more room for the other players.  Cycling players at all positions will force the players with the man advantage to keep moving and become less stationary and predictable.  When players are not moving around, they become easier to defend against.  Defense should cycle with the forwards,  Wingers should cycle with the centerman.

Treat Every Game A Must Win

Logic would dictate that the playoffs are not possible for NewJersey.  The odds of winning all the remaining games are slim, but who would have believed the Devils would have such a long undefeated streak.  Simply put, parity in the league allows many more teams to compete until the very last game of the season.  Not many will admit the Devils are finished from post season.  Confidence can make David defeat Goliath, just like New Jersey has done to many teams.  On many nights the Leafs have shown the same confidence that allowed them to surprise excellent teams.  However, the Leafs struggle to find the confidence to defeat weaker teams, like the Islanders.  There are no such things as winnable games, but at this time of year the phrase "must win" rings loud and clear.

With Four Losses To Spare, Playoffs Still Possible

For a team considered by many to be the youngest in the NHL, they recently started to play beyond their years.

In the previous ten games, the Maple Leafs have gone 6-1-3, with the regulation loss against the defending Stanley Cup champions Blackhawks.

Keeping matters in perspective, many fans and critics dismissed any chance the Leafs have at making the playoffs.  Although the playoffs are still not likely, the Maple Leafs have played better than anyone would have predicted.

With  16 games remaining and only 32 points up for grabs, to reach 90 points for the season the team can afford to lose 9 points (4 games and 1 OTL/SO).  With four weeks remaining, the Leafs can only lose one game per week.  This is how it breaks down.

WEEK March 7 - 13
Three games:
@ Islanders,      (must win)
VS Flyers,          (possible loss)
VS Sabres.         (must win)

WEEK March 14 - 20
Four Games:
VS Lightening   (must win)
@ Hurricanes    (must win)
@ Panthers       (possible win)
VS Bruins          (possible loss)

WEEK March 21- 27
@ Wild              (must win)
@ Avalanche   (must win)
@ Red Wings  (possible loss)

WEEK March 28 - 2
VS Sabres     (must win)
@ Bruins      (possible loss)
@ Senators  (possible Win)

To make matters interesting, should the Leafs lose but still acquire a point, the margin for error increases.  With every game being critical, if a win is not possible, the single point is mandatory.

Another Must Win Game In Philadelphia

The Flyers are on the verge of becoming first club in team history since 1985-86 to reach the 50 win mark in a season.  No team in the NHL should take the Flyers lightly.  The Leafs have not defeated the Flyers this season, falling 2-5 @ Philly Oct 23 and 4-1 @ Toronto Dec 9.  Tonight and March 10 are the only reaming games.

With two games remaining against Philly, Leaf fans can monitor Kris Versteeg in his new team.  Versteeg will want to play well against his former club along with other Leaf killers Briere (4 PTS in 2 GP) and Richards (4 PTS in 2 GP).

Toronto will count on Clark MacArthur (2 PTS in 2 GP).  MacArthur has success against the Flyers over his career, registering 2-8-10 in 11 GP.  Coincidentally, linemate Nikolai Kulemin also has success against Philly 4-3-7 in 9 GP.  Lupul has history with Philly, but in two games played against them has one assist.  Lupul has helped Kessel regain his confidence and will be a force for the Leafs.  Bozak has also benefited by playing with Lupul and his success against Philly 1-1-2 in 5 GP should be good news for that line.

Defenceman Brett Lebda has quietly filled the void left by recently departed Kaberle and registered a plus five rating in the last five games.  Recently, he scored his first goal of the season  and 2 PTS against MTL. D Carl Gunnarsson has logged over 22 mintues of ice-time in six games after Feb 19 and still leads the D in goals with 3.  D Mike Komisarek is not going to lead offensively, he has lead the team with 124 hits and 102 blocked shots.  Tied for the D in goals (3), Dion Phaneuf has quietly started to pick up his play and become a force on offense and defense.

Philly in goal with Boucher has had success going 6-2-1 in 10 GP with a 1.65 GAA and .928 SV%.  G Bobrovsky has never played the Leafs in regular season.  D Sean O'Donnell has mild success against the Leafs in 34 GP, 2-8-10.  Carter has scored with regularity against the Leafs in 20 GP, 10-4-14.  Mike Richards also has success against the Leafs in 19 GP, 8-6-14.  If D Chris Pronger plays, he is always a threat against the Leafs in 38 GP, 3-18-21.  Ville Leino has surprised many and the Leafs in 2 GP, 2-0-2.  Giroux has been the very successful against the Leafs registering a point per game, 8 GP, 3-5-8.  The biggest threat to the Leafs is Danny Briere who has registered more that a point per game, 34 GP, 17-19-36.

Philly Buster

Philly has not lost consecutive games since December.  Toronto is playing the second game in two nights.    The odds are stacked against the Leafs for pulling out a win against Philly.  Philly plays very well at home with a 20-8-3 record, in contrast to a weak Leaf road team 13-16-2.  At the end of the day,  what matter most is which team wants to win more.

The Flyers are playing for pride, having lost to Ottawa in the last game played.  The Leafs are playing for survival.

If the Leafs somehow manage to get the eighth place seed for the playoffs, The first round opponent for the Leafs could be against the Philadelphia Flyers.

5 Losses and 1 OTL Will End Season For Leafs

History dictates that a playoff team should accumulate 90 points in the regular season.  The Maple Leafs would require an additional 27 points to the 63 they have.  The schedule shows 63 games have been played, therefore only 19 games remain with a maximum of 38 points up for grabs.  To break this down further, the leafs require a combination of 13 wins and 1 tie to reach the 90 points.  Conversely, the Leafs can only squander 11 points and still get to 90 points for the season.  Therefore, the Leafs can only lose 5 games in regulation and 1 OTL/SO over the next 19 games.

Who would the five losses be against?

19 WED MAR 2, 2011 PITTSBURGH @ TORONTO

18 THU MAR 3, 2011 TORONTO @ PHILADELPHIA

 17 SAT MAR 5, 2011 CHICAGO @ TORONTO

16 TUE MAR 8, 2011 TORONTO @ NY ISLANDERS

15 THU MAR 10, 2011 PHILADELPHIA @ TORONTO

14 SAT MAR 12, 2011 BUFFALO @ TORONTO

13 MON MAR 14, 2011 TAMPA BAY @ TORONTO

12 WED MAR 16, 2011 TORONTO @ CAROLINA

11 THU MAR 17, 2011 TORONTO @ FLORIDA

10 SAT MAR 19, 2011 BOSTON @ TORONTO

9 TUE MAR 22, 2011 TORONTO @ MINNESOTA

8 THU MAR 24, 2011 TORONTO @ COLORADO

7 SAT MAR 26, 2011 TORONTO @ DETROIT

6 TUE MAR 29, 2011 BUFFALO @ TORONTO

5 THU MAR 31, 2011 TORONTO @ BOSTON

4 SAT APR 2, 2011 TORONTO @ OTTAWA

3 TUE APR 5, 2011 WASHINGTON @ TORONTO

2 WED APR 6, 2011 TORONTO @ NEW JERSEY

1 SAT APR 9, 2011 MONTREAL @ TORONTO

With games against Detriot, Philadelphia (x2), Tampa, Buffalo (x2), Boston (x2), Washington and New Jersey,  it is not hard to concede the playoffs are realistically mission impossible.

The road ahead does not look good with 10 road games and 9 home games.  At home, the Maple Leafs have 9 home Games, and a record of 14-11-7.  With 10 road games left and a 13-16-2 record, things do not look good.

The Maple Leafs have been written off before, a record of 5-1-4 over the last 10 games was never in the cards but the Maple Leafs continue to defy logic.

Is Stephen Weiss A Burke Top Six Player?

According to the statistical information for Stephen Weiss.
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Age: 27
Date of birth: April 03, 1983
Place of birth: Toronto, Ont., Canada
Ht: 5-11 Wt: 185
Shoots: L
Salary: $3,200,000
NHL Seasons: 8
Drafted by Florida in 2001 (1/4).

PROS: Hockey scouts claim he has scoring ability and can make teammates better.  He has good acceleration and two-way instincts.  

CONS: He can struggle in the physical department and must get stronger.

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For an eight year NHL veteran, I find it hard to believe that scouts think he needs to get stronger given his height and weight.  Weiss will not physcially dominate other players, that is not his style of game.  He does play a responsible two-way game that would fit well on the second or third line of many NHL teams.

Brian Burke has traded for strong physical players in Lupul and Colborne.  It should come as no surprise that future players with the organization need to have size and succeed in tough contests.  

Weiss does not fit into the long term plans for the Maple Leafs.

The Pitfalls Of Social Networking - NHL Trade Deadline

On February 28, 2011, the NHL trade deadline was reaching a frenzy conclusion at 3:00pm EST.  Traditional methods to receive updates were TV & radio until now.  Microblogging has taken on a more prominent role in reporting real time events as recently witnessed in Egypt and Libya.  Twitter is a well known microblogging site that allows users to post by topic or type for anyone to follow.  Despite some of the criticism that tweets are similar to shouts into the darkness hoping someone is listening, popular media has starting using Twitter and given the site more credibility.  Privacy and security still remain hot topics with Twitter accounts in addition to fake accounts.  Clever users managed to convey themselves as popular media sources and tweet falsified trade rumours as fact.  More surprising is how quickly the false information was taken to be true.  In another twist to twitter, a mob decided to tweet blast the Toronto Maple Leafs twitter account for Joffery Lupul and wish him well with the New York Islanders.  It is believed that the massive number of tweets Lupul received made him believe he was indeed traded and even posted his own reaction to being traded.  The Lupul tweet blast was cruel and calculating but exemplifies how more people should be aware of the pitfalls of social networking.

Missing - Coach & GM Critic's

Kudos to Brian Burke for not getting a rental player.  With so many critics saying the GM & coach should be fired earlier in the season, where have they all gone?  Frankly, the critics were wrong.  Most critics will point to the Kessel trade, I feel that  is too early to judge.  Burke made the best move on the trade deadline, nothing major.  Historically, many trade gaffes have been made on deadline day, thankfully we did not mortgage the future.  The current group of players have earned the chance to prove they are better than the record shows.  Burke will let these players battle for a playoff spot.  Should this group of players  manage a playoff spot, impossible one month ago, the critics will need to find some thing else to complain about.