Thursday, December 29, 2011

TORONTO GETS BURNED IN FLORIDA

Evaluating the loss to the Florida Panthers, Reimer was not ready and team defense was lacking again.

The first goal was a point shot that Reimer should have saved but clearly was not out far enough in the crease.
Puck turned over and moved to the point.  A slap shot from the blueline on net.

Reimer is playing deep and not square enough to the shooter.  Puck squeaks in on left side.  

TORONTO 0 - FLORIDA 1

COMMENT: Reimer needs to challege shooters by moving out of the crease on shots from blueline.


A young defense will make more mistakes than an older group.  Here Jake Gardiner pinches in and Kulemin did not read play fast enought and was never able to cover defensively.  As the play develops, Franson was not able to block the pass attempt (priority #1) and the ensuing breakaway unfolds.  Lucky goal for Thomas.

Gardiner makes bad decision to pinch.

Kulemin caught behind play.

Franson now defending a 2 on 1.

Missed pass block attempt by Franson.

Breakaway for Thomas

TORONTO 1 - FLORIDA 2

COMMENT:  Defense need to make better decisions on when to attack in offensive zone.


Reimer had a tough night overall.  Your best penalty killer is your goaltender and on this goal Reime was not ready for the shot.

Slap shot being taken and Reimer does not know where the puck is.

TORONTO 1 - FLORIDA 3

COMMENT: Tough night for Reimer.  Good coaching move to pull him out of game.

On the fifth Florida goal, the play started with Schenn skating the puck into the offensive zone.  Schenn would lose the puck.  The mistake that cost the goal was NOT the turnover in the offensive end.

Schenn with puck going for skate.

Line changes for both sides.

Schenn taking puck into zone.

Schenn gets stripped off puck.  Should have dumped puck in deep to avoid turnover.

Leafs caught going wrong way and Florida with puck.

The turnover results in a 1 on 1.

Gunnarsson did everything correct except use the stick to attempt a shot block.

TORONTO 3 - FLORIDA 5

COMMENT:  Sticks are used for passing and the body is used for blockings pucks.  Stop trying to block the shot with the stick, it only make the save harder for the goaltender.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Bell Canada Accused Of Anticompetition

The CRTC has found that Bell gave itself a significant competitive advantage by giving their mobile customers exclusive rights to popular broadcast content.  This CRTC bans carriers from giving access to TV programming exclusively to their own subscribers.


Considering how Bell owns many television networks, it is alarming that exclusive rights to subscribers was permitted.  The practice as been going on for many years now and would lead many in Canada to believe the CRTC has done too little too late.  Is it possible that Rogers had a role in this CRTC decision?

http://openmedia.ca/news/crtc-calls-bell-out-anticompetitive-practices

Sunday, October 16, 2011

PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT INDICATE FUTURE TRENDS

The Colorado Avalanche for two years in a row had great starts to the season.  The Achilles heel for the Avs is the games after the All-Star break.  To start the 2011 season, the Avs are off to a great start again.  The Leafs typically play poorly before the All-Star break, and then over-achieve the rest of the season.  One thing is for certain, past performances do not indicate future trends.  The Maple Leafs have revamped the roster and coaching staff so it would be unfair to suggest the Leafs will repeat the failures of last season.  The Avs have bolstered the goaltending and roster and could sustain the momentum till the end of the season.  It appears that both teams evenly match each other with the marginal advantage given to Toronto.  The season is still early and two young fast skating teams should make for an entertaining hockey game.  If you watch both teams, the key to the game will be the goaltending / defense.  Ultimately, mistakes will cost one team the game.  Which goaltender will start the game for Colorado and Toronto?  Will we see Giguere against Gustavsson?

Sunday, September 18, 2011

NHL SEASON 2010 VS 2011, WHAT HAS CHANGED?

On paper, the Leafs look like they could contend for a playoff spot right?  Isn't that what most people said last year?

Let me list a few points about what the critics said before the 2010 season.
  • Forwards need to help Phil Kessel
  • Defense needs to play better.
  • Need solid goaltending.
Last season, it was predicted Kessel would score 35 goals if he stays healthy.  In fact he scored 32 with no NHL center.  The team had plenty of grinders and tough guys and by committee scored plenty of goals.  The big free agent signing was Colby Armstrong penciled in to play the third line checking role.  Versteeg was synonymous with "key signing" and "big contributions".  Bozak was considered a wildcard and people had faith in his abilities to deliver.  The Kulemin, Grabovski and MacArthur line was strong in preseason and looked like worthy secondary scoring unit.  The bottom six were a mash of pluggers but not many questions existed.

The critics were applauding the Maple Leaf defense corps as one of the better in the East on paper.  In preseaon they performed admirably but as the season progressed, it was clear the team lacked toughness and leadership on the back-end.  This was further magnified when Dion Phaneuf was removed from the lineup due to injury.

Recall:
Dion Phanuef - Francois Beauchemin
Tomas Kaberle - Mike Komisarek
Luke Schenn - Carl Gunnarsson
Jeff Finger

Lebda and Lashoff were injured to start the season.  Komisarek was healthy and predicted to be a big part of the resurgence with the Leafs.  Kaberle would produce at his usual pace.  Schenn & Gunnarsson would try to shut-down other teams.  The biggest concern the critics have known was where the offense would come from and would the defense be tougher to play against.

Giguere was the all-around model player for the Maple Leafs.  He showed leadership and had the hardware to prove he can compete in the playoffs.  The biggest concern was if Gustavsson would live up to his potential.  Giguere played surprisingly well and not many questioned his durability.  Critics believed if the defense faltered, the goaltending would be strong enough to make up the difference.

After another disappointing end to the season, many critics were wondering why the coach did not shoulder more blame from the GM.

The start of the 2011 season has not altered the thinking of what needs to improve.  The scoring, defense, and goaltending all need to improve.  Preseason will give fans and critics a chance to evaluate if the team has made strides to improve in key areas.

Schennsational

I was not surprised with the final negotiations between Luke Schenn / Agent and Maple Leafs and the five year $3.6M cap hit.  Some readers will think that Leafs tried to low-ball the negotiations but I believe Schenn was compensated fairly considering Pavel Kubina $3.85M, Dennis Wideman $3.937M, Christian Erhoff $4M to name a few.

Former Kelona Rockets teammate and Buffalo Sabre Tyler Myers negotiated a contract $5.5M cap hit recently.  The contract awarded to Myers appears high for a relatively unproven player but I could be wrong.  Myers has shown plenty of upside but in my opinion has not proven he deserves a salary in the $5.5M cap hit range.

Drew Doughty and the LA Kings are having difficulties in negotiations since it appears the Kings have offered around $6M cap hit but agent is asking around $7M.  Doughty has played spectacularly well in the Olympics and NHL so awarding him anywhere above $5M is not undeserved.

Friday, July 22, 2011

Chris Campoli Turns Page In Hockey Career

Last year, the Maple Leafs were fortunate enough to land Clarke MacArthur when the Thrashers walked away from the bargaining table.  At the time, captain Dion helped convinced Clarke to sign with Toronto and having very little competition for ice time helped solidify that decision.  Recently, the Blackhawks also walked away from Chris Campoli at the bargaining table because they could not agree on a new contract.

Campoli is an offensive defenseman who like all players of this calibre are prone to defensive errors.

This game seven overtime turnover may have left Campoli out of any future plans in Chicago.


The Mississauga native will surely be interested in playing closer to home and many teams have enquired about the free agent and will most likely start a bidding war for his services.  The arbitration award was $2.5M, which the Blackhawks walked away from.

With the logjam on the blueline for the Maple Leafs, does it make sense to try and sign Chris Campoli?  Burke has claimed many times having depth on defense is important for teams in the playoffs.

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

14 Reasons Why Steven Stamkos Will Remain In Tampa

Given the quality type player Steven Stamkos is, you would expect many teams would rush to get in an offer sheet for the restricted free agent.  Teams could begin the bidding July 1st, but they also know Tampa Bay had the right to match any offer.

  • Any team that submits an offer sheet must have the salary cap space to sign him.  
  • A team can only go over $64.3M by 10 percent but only until the start of the regular season.
  • A team must have the required draft picks to surrender for compensation (four first-round draft picks)
Essentially, a team is allowed to have their salary cap go as high as $70.73M and then try and get under the salary cap before the start of the regular season.  Saying it and doing it are two very different matters.

Teams currently rumored to be in the hunt for Stamkos include Toronto, New York Rangers, and Calgary.

Toronto will not present an offer sheet to Stamkos because 
  • Burke will explore trade options first.
  • Leafs do not have the assets to trade for Stamkos.
  • Phil Kessel is already on the team, you only have one puck
  • $5.8M in cap space with RFA Luke Schenn still waiting for an offer.
New York will not present an offer sheet to Stamkos because 
  • Sather tried to acquire Stamkos and admits now the opportunity is lost.
  • New York has Richards and Stepan, they need help in other areas.
  • Brad Richards is already on the team, you only have one puck
  • $12.86M in remaining cap space with RFA Callahan, Boyle and Dubinsky still waiting for an offer.
Calgary will not present an offer sheet to Stamkos because 
  • Feaster will explore trade options first.
  • Calgary does not have any assets Tampa would accept in a trade.
  • Will not be able to convince any team to take Calgary's expensive player contracts. 
  • $3.816M in remaining cap space.
The biggest reason teams will not present an offer sheet to Stamkos is

  • Tampa can match any offer!  Tampa has $14.8M in cap space left and already have 20 players signed.
  • why would ownership want to see him move elsewhere since he is big attraction for the fans?

Can we put the Stamkos offer sheet / trade rumors to rest now?

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Everything Old Is New Again

Turn the clock back 1 year ago to July 2010.  The Atlanta Thrashers just completed a trade with the Blackhawks which many consider a brilliant move by Dudley.  However, Atlanta is considered a small market team and operates with a lower budget than most teams.  Colby Armstrong and Clarke MacArthur were not resigned mostly due to economics when both players could come to an agreement with the Thrashers.  Toronto was fortunate to acquire both players.

Dudley is no stranger to small budgets during his stay with Tampa and Florida.  With Toronto, Dudley is now part of a management team that is not afraid to spend money on players.  Although it may seem ironic that MacArthur would have signed for more money than what was offered last year, no one can say Clarke MacArthur did not deserve it.  With Atlanta, Dudley had to make tough calls on who would stay or go.  The depth with the Atlanta Thrashers allowed the team to let both players walk away and replace them from within.  It was a hockey & business decision.  Sometimes, business decisions take more precedence over hockey ones.  Armstrong and MacArthur should feel safe as long as they can contribute to the team success.

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Are The 2012 Leafs Playoff Bound?

Can the Maples Leafs make the playoffs this year after all the changes on the team?

If you believe the Leafs will make the playoffs then what team(s) will not?


Here is the 2010 Eastern Conference Regular Season Standings.

 EASTERN                 DIV GP W L OT PTS
1  Z-WASHINGTON       SE 82 48 23 11 107           IMPROVED
2  Y-PHILADELPHIA   ATL 82 47 23 12    106           DECLINED
3  Y-BOSTON                NE 82 46 25 11 103           SAME
4  X-PITTSBURGH        ATL 82 49 25 8 106           IMPROVED++
5  X-TAMPA BAY        SE 82 46 25 11 103           SAME
6  X-MONTRÉAL        NE 82 44 30 8 96             SAME
7  X-BUFFALO         NE 82 43 29 10 96             IMPROVED++
8  X-NY RANGERS        ATL 82 44 33 5 93             IMPROVED+
9  CAROLINA                SE 82 40 31 11 91             SAME
10  TORONTO                NE 82 37 34 11 85             IMPROVED+
11  NEW JERSEY       ATL 82 38 39 5 81             IMPROVED++
12  ATLANTA               SE 82 34 36 12 80             SAME
13  OTTAWA               NE 82 32 40 10 74             SAME
14  NY ISLANDERS       ATL 82 30 39 13 73             SAME
15  FLORIDA               SE 82 30 40 12 72             SAME


- Washington  has added goaltending depth that could see them go far next year.  Playoff bound? YES
- Philadelphia got younger and added goaltending.  This may be a year where the teams needs to fail in order to succeed.  Chances are they will drop in the standings but should still make the playoffs.  Playoff bound? YES
- Boston.  Stanley Cup Champs.  Will they have the desire to repeat or suffer the curse of the Stanley Cup and miss the playoffs?  Boston is a young team and have managed to keep most of their players.  I see no reason why they should not make the playoffs.  Playoffs? YES
- Pittsburgh.  With a healthy Crosby, Malkin and Stall the sky is the limit.  Without Crosby and Malkin the team still made the playoffs.  Playoffs?  YES
- Tampa Bay.  A surprise team for sure.  Stamkos will be back.  Losing Gagne and Bergenheim will hurt but were not considered core pieces.  Tampa plays with good team defense and can win games on special teams.  If Roloson can equal his performance from last season, Tampa Bay will do extremely well.  The team is getting older and lacks depth but special teams is the saving grace.  Playoffs? Maybe
- Montreal.  Losing Wisniewski was offset by getting Markov back.  Adding Cole will make up for the loss of Pouliot and Halpern.  Losing Hamrlik will allow someone to compete for a spot from within.  If Gomez could play to expectations and Eller improves from last season, the Canadiens will improve in the standings.  If Price follows up his great season with a poor one, Montreal could be out of the playoffs.  This is a contract year for Price.  Playoffs? Maybe
- Buffalo.  Adding Leino, Ehrhoff, Regehr to any team will make them better.  Buffalo was already a young and exciting team.  Connolly was lost to FA, but the Sabres can replace his production by committee.  Boyes is low on the team depth chart because the team is stacked with talent.  If Miller plays average, the Sabres will still make the playoffs.  Playoffs? YES
- NY Rangers.  Brad Richards will no doubt help this team overall.  Parting ways with McCabe, Drury also makes the team better.  Losing Gilroy will hurt.  Callahan and Dubinsky will get resigned.  Keeping Frolov and Prospal would add depth.  Lundqvist will continue his spectacular play and keep the Rangers in the hunt.  Playoffs? Maybe.
- Carolina.  The team got older quickly with the additions of Kaberle and  Ponikarovsky.  Losing Cole was offset a little by adding Anthony Stewart.  Tim Brent adds quality depth.  Why are so many ex-Leafs on Carolina?  Carolina will have a very hard time to compete for a playoff spot.  Playoffs? NO
-New Jersey.  Could this be the last season for Martin Brodeur?  If not, this is a contract year and if he plans on playing next year he will need to have another outstanding year.  Parise will get signed and only solidify the core group of players.  This team was light out deadly when all was thought lost they made an unbelievable run for a playoff spot.  The team will definitely make a strong case for playoffs.  Playoffs? YES
Toronto. Addressed the need for a center by adding two.  Connolly and Lombardi (healthy) add much need depth to the center position.  Liles and Frason add more offensive depth to the blueline.  Resigning MacArthur guarantees the Leafs have good second line attack.  Riemer is believed to be the real deal, and will provide dependable goaltending.  Gustavsson could be the dark-horse and outplay Riemer for the starting position.  With the improved play from the end of the season and the key additions to the rosters, the Leafs should be more competitive.

Playoffs? Are the Leafs are better than Rangers, Tampa Bay and Montreal?  New Jersey will make the playoffs, they are a much better team than the standings show.  If Brad Richards is everything he was advertised to be, then the Rangers will surge in the standings and leapfrog over Montreal but not ahead of Tampa Bay, Buffalo or Philadelphia.  My belief is that the final playoff spot will be a battle between Montreal, Rangers and Toronto.  Do you believe Toronto is a better team than Montreal and the Rangers?  With the additions Toronto has made, they put themselves in a position to be better than both.  The Rangers and Carolina had rookies who had outstanding seasons but most likely will not be able to repeat in the sophomore season.  The Rangers added Richards but lost Drury.  Brad  Richards will not be the savior people are expecting and will suffer under the intense media scrutiny when his production does not exceed or meet expectations.  Montreal did nothing to improve and they were not a bad team to begin with.

2010 Eastern Conference Standings - Final


EASTERN                 DIV
1  WASHINGTON           SE
2  PITTSBURGH        ATL
3  BOSTON                NE
4  PHILADELPHIA       ATL
5  BUFFALO                NE
6  TAMPA BAY        SE
7  NEW JERSEY        ATL
8  TORONTO                NE
9  MONTRÉAL               NE
10  NY RANGERS        ATL
11  WINNIPEG                SE
12 CAROLINA                SE
13  FLORIDA               SE
14 NY ISLANDERS       ATL
15  OTTAWA               NE

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Leafs Can Roll All Four Lines

The Maple Leafs look very deep and could roll four lines.

Assumptions:
- MacArthur signs
- Schenn signs
- Lombardi is healthy
- Caputi earns a roster spot on 3rd line
- Kadri not demoted to AHL
- Colton Orr on IR / Scratched



FORWARDS (12)

Joffrey Lupul ($4,250,000)         Tim Connolly ($4,750,000)         Phil Kessel ($5,400,000)
- Connolly has the ability to feed Kessel and Lupul and also score himself.  Good defensively, he will be counted on to make this line work.  Only question is can he stay healthy.

Nikolai Kulemin ($2,350,000)   Mikhail Grabovski ($2,900,000)   Clarke MacArthur ($2,900,000)
- This trio just clicked and made life difficult for opponents.  Grabovski needs to improve in faceoffs.

Luca Caputi ($525,000)      Tyler Bozak ($975,000)       Colby Armstrong ($3,000,000)
- If Caputi can manage to stick with Leafs, he can be a useful 3rd line winger molding his game like Armstrong.  Bozak and Armstrong play extremely well together on the PK, so they would make an excellent combo.  With Caputi, this line can add offense and counted on to shut down other top lines.  Bozak has all the offensive tools, just needs to work on his defense.

Mike Brown ($736,667)      Matthew Lombardi ($3,500,000)     Nazem Kadri ($1,720,000)
-Lombardi slotted on fourth line but could easily be on the 1st.  Until we see him play, assume it will take time for Lombardi to find his game.  Kadri is still learning the game but suited better on the wing for now.


DEFENSEMEN (7)

Dion Phaneuf ($6,500,000) John-Michael Liles ($4,200,000)
- This could be good and bad.  Liles was questioned in the media for his weakness on defense, no one will question is offense.  This pairing should be considered an experiment since both can be good on offense and equally porous on defense.

Luke Schenn ($3,933,333)   Cody Franson ($800,000)
- Schenn had a breakthrough year after a horrible 2nd year.  Franson is very quick on his feet for a big man and can lead the offensive rush knowing Schenn can take care of the other end.  Franson, like Liles are not known for their defensive games.

Mike Komisarek ($4,500,000) Carl Gunnarsson ($1,325,000)
-Komisarek should be playing as the top 3rd or 4th defense but he has struggled with the Leafs so far.  At the end of last season, his game started to vastly improve.  For now, he will be top six getting limited ice time.  Gunnarsson and Aulie were both given plenty of opportunity and showed they can handle the rigors of the NHL.  Aulie, could take a step back in his second season and might get passed by Gunnarsson on the depth chart.

Keith Aulie ($733,333)

GOALTENDERS (2)
James Reimer ($1,800,000)
Jonas Gustavsson ($1,350,000)
- Reimer has proven himself in the ECHL, AHL and now the NHL.  Can he live up to the high expectations in his second season?  Gustavsson may be proven in Sweden, but has not proven himself in North America.  With the Marlies, once he returned from injuries, he played extremely well before getting called up by the Leafs.  Hopefully Gustavsson can learn from Reimer and not explode after letting in a goal.

BUYOUTS (1)
Darcy Tucker ($1,000,000)

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Gilmour, Nieuwendyk and Belfour called to the Hockey Hall of Fame.

It was a long wait for Gilmour and Belfour but today they got word they will be inducted into the Hockey Hall Of Fame.  Leaf Nation is hoping Pat Burns will get his turn soon.

Brooks Laich Signs With Washington


In a surprising turn of events, Brooks Laich declared his commitment to Washington and was not considering testing the free agent market.  In return for his loyalty, Washington rewarded Brooks with a 27 million contract over 6 years (4.5 million avg salary).  It was obvious the demand for his services would be high on July 1st, and with a 4.5 millions salary you could say Washington did not get a home town discount to retain his services.  It appears the cost of second and third line players have reached a new ceiling.  What would Clarke McArthur be awarded in arbitration?  Would Leaf fans be surprised if Burke gave a similar deal to Brooks?  What price tage would Parise, Richards, and Stamkos be labelled as?

What is a player worth?  If you consider the maximum NHL roster size is 23 and the salary cap is $64 million, on average each player would be worth $2.78 mil.  If you consider the minimum NHL roster size of 20 and cap, then on average each player would be worth $3.2 mil.  The average of both figures is $2.99 mil per roster player.  Many would consider Laich an above player for his team since he is a well rounded depth hockey player with offensive upside.

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Scott Gomez Toronto Bound?

Montreal recently signed Andrei Markov to a contract with a cap hit of $5.75 mil per season for three years.  The cap payroll currently sits above $49 million leaving approximately 15 million to spend for Montreal.  Montreal still has six UFA and six RFA to sign with some high notable players on that list including James Wisniewski, Josh Gorges, Roman Hamrlik, , Brent Sopel and Benoit Pouliot.  Josh Gorges could easily be in the $4.5 - $5.5 million range and this could go to arbitration.  James Wisniewski was in the $3.25 and will be looking for a raise in the $4 - 4.5 million range.  Assuming these two players take up $10 million leaving only $5 million to sign 10 players, something has to give.

You don't have to look very far to see what pieces can be removed from the roster for cap relief and still not disturb the core of the team.  Scott Gomez has a target on his back with a commanding $+7 million and declining salary.  Toronto is in the fortunate position to absorb the cap hit for two more years.

Friday, June 24, 2011

Leafs Acquire John-Michael Liles

Tomas Kaberle was traded to Boston for prospect Joe Colborne, 1st round draft pick (30th overall), and Boston's 2nd round pick in 2012.  Burke has managed to turn the conditional pick into John Michael Liles.

Trade now breaks down to this:

Toronto Acquired:

  1. Joe Colborne (2008 1st round, 16th overall)
  2. 2011 1st round pick, 30th overall
  3. John-Michael Liles (2000 159th overall)


Boston Acquired:

  1. Tomas Kaberle (1996 204th overall)


Colorado Acquired:

  1. Boston 2012 2nd round pick

John-Michael Liles is on the last year of his contract and was battling a concussion, he will be looking to perform well in a contract year.  Despite the shortened season, Liles put up good numbers for an offensive defenseman with 76-6-40.  JML adds more than offense to the back-end for the Leafs, he could be a big boon to the Leafs by adding the offensive presence on the back end and his quick puck moving skills.  His speed will allow the team to utilize their speed and skill.  The passing skill on the blueline jumped up exponentially.  The power play will improve greatly now that JML can quarterback.

Rick Dudley Added To Leafs Management Team

Wow!  Rick Dudley was recently let go from his job with Atlanta when the team was relocated to Winnipeg.  The "Jets" loss is the Leafs gain!  Dudley was the chief architect in creating the Tampa Bay team that won the cup in 2004.  When he landed in Chicago, he was instrumental in building up the Blackhawks to make their cup run in 2010.  With Atlanta, the team is already starting to look like a cup contender with many pieces in place.  I certainly hope the Leafs scouting staff, Nonis and Burke use Dudley to help them with the 2011 NHL entry draft!

Richards And Carter Traded Away!

They were the trades heard around NHL circles that took everyone by surprise.  It was no secret that the Flyers were in a cap crunch and desperately wanted to sign newly acquired Ilya Bryzgalov.  It was expected that either Jeff Carter or Mike Richards would be dealt to provide the cap relief.   When the Flyers announced they traded both star players, that sent shock waves around the NHL.  It may come as a shock to most fans but the Flyers are a better team now and in the future.

Flyers captain Mike Richards single-handedly took the team deep into the playoffs previously and had a bit of an off-season this past season.  Carter had solid year last season and was starting to play a more dominant role with the Flyers.

Flyers Acquire:

  1. future NHL star Brayden Schenn (2009 1st round, 5th overall)
  2. top six NHL forward Wayne Simmonds (2007 2nd round, 61st overall)
  3. and additional second-round pick 


Kings Acquire:

  1. Mike Richards (2003 1st round pick, 24th overall).

The Kings needed to get better now and were willing to gamble on Schenn and Simmonds for the immediate help from Richards.   The Kings are now better team and can make a deep run into the playoffs having a solid group of top six forwards.

The Flyers needed the cap relief and are a better team now since they have goaltending that could win a playoff round for the team in Ilya Bryzgalov.  With the departures of Richards and Carter, the Flyers can allow JVR, Leino and others to develop further and take more ownership for the success/failure.  Simonds is a RFA and will potentially earn a higher salary.


Flyers Acquire:  
  1. future NHL star Jakub Voracek (2007 1st round, 7th overall)
  2. 2011 1st round, Columbus, 8th overall
  3. 2011 3rd round, Columbus, 68 overall

Blue Jackets Acquire:
  1. Jeff Carter (2003 1st round pick, 11th overall).

The Blue Jackets need a center to play with Nash and acquired Carter.  Carter is known as a scorer rather than a puck distributor so this pairing may not be ideal for both players.

The Flyers replace Carter for a younger, and potentially more talented Jakub Voracek, along with the 8th pick and high 3rd round pick.  The 8th pick could become Ryan Strome or Sean Couturier.  Voracek will help the Flyers immediately and at much easier cap hit.

The Flyers had one big area in need in goal and have addressed it with Bryzgalov.  They also moved established star players in Richards and Carter for unknown potential star players and also getting younger.  The future is looking good for the Flyers and now they have cap spaced to added more depth if needed.

You may be asking how does this tie in with the Maple Leafs?  The Flyers have echoed the asking price for a relatively young star player will cost approximately two 1st round picks and 2nd round give or take.  The Flyers trade closely resembles the Leafs trade for Kessel if you consider that Kessel is not locked into a long term contract and was younger when traded to the Maple Leafs and Boston acquired only picks and no players.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Star Reporter Kevin McGran Calling Into Question Brian Burke Drafting Success

Prior to reading the article "Burke's NHL draft record: feast or famine", I was hoping something useful could be taken away for reflection.  Instead, it appears to be another anti Brian Burke article from Toronto sports media.  I tend to dislike articles that attempt to add substance by adding statistics but forget to add impartiality.  Essentially, the article says Burke's drafting record is under .500, and previous GM JFJ had better results drafting.  Nowhere was mentioned how other GM's compared against Burke so the reader must assume .500 mark is the standard.  What about teams that prefer to tank for five years and then make a run for the cup?  Should a Detroit or NJ GM's have a better record than .500 if they continually finish in the top of the league standings?

Kevin McGran seems to think

0.5*[Quality GM] + 0.5*[High Draft Pick] = [NHL Player]


I would argue the formula is not so simple.

0.5*[Player Development] + 0.25*[Quality Scouting Staff] +  0.15*[High Draft Pick] + 0.1*[Quality GM] +  = [NHL Player]


Player Development has many components and singularly the most important to ensure a draft pick reaches the NHL.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Home Team Wins Game 7 Of Stanley Cup Final

In recent NHL playoff History, the home team usually wins the Stanley Cup Game 7 match.  However, Pittsburgh and Sidney Crosby changed that in 2009.  Odds are in favor of Vancouver unless Tim Thomas can steal Game 7 for Boston.

Note: in the 2009 Game 7 finals, the 3rd and 4th lines had more to do with the outcome rather than the top players.

June 19, 2006 - @Carolina Hurricanes 3, Edmonton Oilers 1
June 7, 2004 - @Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Calgary Flames 1
June 9, 2003 - @New Jersey Devils 3, Anaheim Mighty Ducks 0
June 9, 2001 - @Colorado Avalanche 3, New Jersey Devils 1
June 14, 1994 - @New York Rangers 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
May 31, 1987 - @Edmonton Oilers 3, Philadelphia Flyers 1 

Philly Cap'n Crunch

When Paul Holmgren traded for Ilya Bryzgalov rights, the rest of the league is now waiting to see what the next move is for the team.  Could they pull a NJ and dress less players to stay under the salary cap?

The NHL salary cap is expected to raise by approximately 4 million.  Using the cap from last year, Flyers are over by approximately 6  million with some assumptions made to resigning players.  Using the online Capgeek cap calculator, it is obvious the Flyers need to trim more than 5 million in cap space and still add an extra body to have the maximum 21 NHL players.  The calculated cap space was over 6 million (adjusted 2 million with new cap).  Modest raises awarded to RFA's but that number could realistically go higher.  Modest contract awarded to Ilya Bryzgalov with the assumption of a longer term.

If Phily is going to keep the team competitive and intact without much change, it would make sense to move one high priced player rather than a handful of average priced players.  The top earning players are Briere, Richards, Pronger, Timonen and Carter.  Age and salary would declassify Briere, Timonen and Pronger as trade assets leaving Richards and Carter.  The center position is harder to replace than wing, so that would mean Jeff Carter is going to be the subject of trade talks.  When Kris Versteeg was traded to Philly at the trade deadline, Jeff Carter immediately became replaceable.

The remaining question is how much do you give up for a player who is a guaranteed cap hit of  $5,272,727 NTC until the end of 2021-22 season (11 years) (age 37 by end of contract).   At about 60+ points per season, is Jeff Carter worth +5mil per season?


CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Daniel Briere ($6.500m) / Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Jeff Carter ($5.272m)
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Kris Versteeg ($3.083m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m) / Ian Laperriere ($1.166m) / Jody Shelley ($1.100m)
Blair Betts ($0.700m) / Ville Leino ($1.500m) / Daniel Carcillo ($1.500m)

DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Matt Carle ($3.437m)
Braydon Coburn ($3.200m) / Danny Syvret ($1.300m)

GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.000m) / Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $66,119,155; BONUSES: $1,700,000
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): -$6,719,155

Diamond In The Rough

His resume reads that he was selected in the first round and seventh overall in the 2001 NHL entry draft.   In 2000-01 he earned CCHA All-Rookie Team honours and the next year earned CCHA First Team All-Star and NCAA West First All-American Team honours.  Twice selected to the USA World Junior team in 2001 and 2002.  Help lead this AHL affiliate in 2002-03 to the AHL Calder Cup final.  In 2003, was selected to the AHL All-Rookie Team.

The son of immigrant parents, he is fist generation for his family in North America.  Losing his mother to pancreatic cancer in November 2005 at the young age of 51 was hard while still having to battle for a job in the NHL.

You probably guessed by now the player is Mike Komisarek.  Komisarek never dazzled opponents with his slick skating or deft stick handling but rather forged a reputation as a hard-hitting, stay-at-home defenseman.   In Montreal, Mike Komisarek was a fan favorite for sticking up for his teammates.  Brian Burke saw that Mike Komisarek played a simple game and signed the UFA to a five year deal to start building his defense core.  After suffering a devastating shoulder injury, he still wanted to play for his country in the Olympics but was denied by his GM due to long term health reasons.  Mike Komisarek  recovered from the the shoulder injury to start the 2010-11 season but having to endure a long rehabilitation appears to have altered his confidence on the ice.  The little mistakes started to snowball from day one and soon enough the avalanche was in full effect.  Maple Leaf coach Ron Wilson was taking a beating in the media for playing Komisarek and eventually Mike saw less minutes per game.  The less Komisarek played, the more amplified his mistakes on the ice were portrayed in the media.  Komisarek has faced adversity many times before outside of hockey and he will rebound again, his resume proves it.  No one should be surprised if Mike Komisarek plays a top four role and proves Brian Burke was correct to sign him as a core player envisioned with the Toronto Maple Leafs.


Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Carl Gunnarsson Agrees To Terms With Leafs


Swedish newspaper has reported that Carl Gunnarson has agreed to a new two year contract with the Maple Leafs, details and salary have not been disclosed. 

The speculation is that the contract could be in the 1.3 mil per season range.

The Leafs currently have four defensemen Phaneuf, Komisarek, Lebda and Aulie signed to contracts for next season.  The Leafs have three defensemen who are restricted free agents with Schenn, Lashoff and Gunnarsson.  With an official press release moments away regarding the Gunnarson contract, Schenn should expecting a new contract soon, preferably before July 1st. 

Monday, June 6, 2011

11 Draft Picks For Leafs in 2011 Draft

The last time Toronto had this many picks was back in 2001 with 12.  From that draft, only two noteworthy NHL players emerged.


117TorontoCarlo ColaiacovoDErie Otters [OHL]3062892120169


5134TorontoKyle WellwoodCBelleville Bulls [OHL]3736810517330


Two out of twelve is not bad?  The wasted picks were as follows:

365TorontoBrendan BellDOttawa 67's [OHL]1017212851


239TorontoKarel PilarDLitvinov CHP HC [Czech]906243042
382TorontoJay HarrisonDBrampton Battalion [OHL]13041418140


388TorontoNicolas CorbeilCSherbrooke Beavers [QMJHL]
6168TorontoMaxim KondratievDTolyatti-24012324
6183TorontoJaroslav SklenarLBrno (Czech)
7198TorontoIvan KolozvaryFTrencin Dukla [Slovak]
7213TorontoJan ChovanGBelleville Bulls [OHL]
8246TorontoTomas MojzisDMoose Jaw Warriors [WHL]1712314
9276TorontoMike KnoepfliFGeorgetown Raiders [OPJHL]


With the bulk of the picks taken after round four, is it safe to assume the pickings were slim?  The following are some of the missed opportunities.


8238NY RangersRyan HollwegCMedicine Hat Tigers [WHL]2285914349


7227ColoradoMarek SvatosRKootenay Ice [WHL]34410072172217
7220CalgaryDavid MossRCedar Rapids RoughRiders [USHL]285595611582


7214Los AngelesCristobal HuetGLugano [Swiss-A]27203310


7202MinnesotaDerek BoogaardLPrince George Cougars [WHL]27731316589


6192DallasJussi JokinenLKarpat Jrs. (Finland)457103186289154
6193OttawaBrooks LaichCMoose Jaw Warriors [WHL]475100137237203


6179BostonAndrew AlbertsDWaterloo Black Hawks [USHL]38164551420


6175San JoseRyane CloweLRimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]31984131215391
6176NY RangersMarek ZidlickyDHIFK Helsinki [SM-liiga]50760224284472


6172PhiladelphiaDennis SeidenbergDMannheim Eagles [DEL]45525123148193


5151VancouverKevin BieksaDBowling Green State University [CCHA]34734113147556


Late round draft picks can still produce NHL players, but the Maple Leafs scouting staff needs to have done their homework.