Friday, July 30, 2010

Colby Armstrong analysis

Maple Leafs Hot Stove has very scientific way of projecting how Colby Armtstrong will perform in 2010-11.  You should give this article a read if you like something more than unfounded opinions.  At lease the author backs his article up with statistics.

http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2010/07/29/what-to-expect-colby-armstrong/

Dominic Moore Signs with Tampa Bay for 2 years.

Dominic Moore has signed a two year contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning.  The dollar amount has not been published yet.  How much would you sign Dominic Moore for if you were GM Steve Y?
Is Ian White worth $3mil/year.  Ian has progressed steadily from the depths of the AHL to make the NHL.  Calgary avoided arbitration by signing Ian to a contract.  Makes we wonder if the arbitrator would have assigned a higher number for Ian.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Frolov Signs with NYR, Ponikarovsky Signs with LA,...

The domino's are starting to fall.  Shortly after Frolov signs with NYR, Ponikarovsky agrees to terms with LA.  As more players start to get signed, more urgency is created in the free agent marketplace.

Monday, July 26, 2010

Mike Van Ryn announced his retirement.

Van Ryn announced his retirement as he became an assistant coach of the Ontario Hockey League's Niagara IceDogs.  The Niagra Ice Dogs introduced Mike Van Ryn as their new assistant coach.

UFA center, John Madden anyone?

John Madden (Toronto Born) is the type of player who could teach a rookie by example all the finer points to become a winner.  Wherever this guy goes, Stanley Cups seem to follow.  At 5'11, 190 lbs, he is not your typical Burke type player, but he is all heart.  If Chicago was not squeezed up against the the cap, I am sure he would have been resigned without blinking.  He was a key part of the Chicago Blackhawks success in the playoffs with his key face off wins and defensive play.  His stats may indicate he has lost his offensive touch but for a third line center, defending more important than offensive numbers.

This would allow a backup plan for Burke and Ron Wilson if Bozak / Grabovski / Kadri start to falter.

Your thoughts?

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Tomas Kaberle's NTC kicks in August 15th

Brian Burke has 21 days to pull of a trade for Tomas Kaberle that will net him a top six forward.  Tomas Kaberle has one year left on his $4.25 million contract (all figures U.S.).  Burke will be listening to all offers leading up to the Aug 15th date.  Brain Burke has repeatedly stated that he was not committed to trading Tomas.  If no trade is forthcoming, a contract extension may be in order.  Negotiations should have already been in progress to determine what the player and agent are seeking.  Hopefully, Brian Burke can handle any contract extension better than the way the Sundin contract talks were handled.  We certainly do not want Tomas to walk away for nothing.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Ilya Kovalchuk Contract Rejection will not change Kaberle situation

The market for a puck moving defender is not as big as some may have you believe.   For the most part, teams who need a puck moving defender already signed them up.


D Sergei Gonchar 
OTT < PIT
D  Zbynek Michalek
PIT < PHX
D Derek Morris
PHX < PHX
D Paul Martin
PIT < NJ
D Henrik Tallinder
NJ < BUF
D Dan Hamhuis
VAN < NSH


Teams that could conceivably make a trade and require a puck moving defender are NSH, BUF, NJSTL due to a loss of a player or lack of players.


NJ - Kovalchuk will most likely resign with New Jersey with NHL approval.  They will not have the cap space to trade for Kaberle unless some magic happens.  Never going to happen.


NSH - Ownership will not want to trade for a player for one year, even if it is a rental.  Why did they let Hamhuis leave?  Would Kaberle want to resign with NSH?  Not likely.


BUF - Buffalo seems to be a very good fit for Kaberle and fills a need from the departed Tallinder.  Toronto could use some assets from Buffalo.  Tomas may resign with Buffalo since it is not far from Toronto.  The question remains would Buffalo be willing to part with key players?  Not likely.


STL - Does Toronto want or need any assets from this team.  Not likely.


We know Burke will not lower his asking price to auction off Tomas Kaberle.  The current demand for a puck moving defender is luke warm at best.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Maple Leafs top six forwards can compete with the best of them and still keep Kaberle

The Maple Leafs top six forwards currently have a solid mix of 20+ goal scorers / grinders who will make opposing defense job harder to neutralize the Toronto offense.  Common sense would dictate the two two forward line should look like this:

LINE 1:  ARMSTRONG / BOZAK / KESSEL
Armstrong will provide the big body presence needed at the front of the opposing net.  This will create room for Bozak & Kessel.

  • Armstrong does have the offensive skills to keep opposing team on guard when he positions himself in front of the net.  Toronto can expect 20+ goals from Armstrong and a much needed defensive minded player to play with Kessel and Bozak.  
  • Bozak should be able to keep pace with last season and put up 60+ points over a full season.  If Tyler can improve upon last year, we can reasonably expect 20+ goals and 50+ assists.
  • When Phil Kessel is healthy, he can be a dangerous offensive threat for opposing teams.  Kessel took the off season to rest and be ready for this year.  We can expect a huge bounce back year from Kessel.  We can reasonably expect to see a 35+ goals and 30+ assists.


LINE 2: KULEMIN  / GRABOVSKI (KADRI) / VERSTEEG
Kulemein and Grabovski played well together, now imagine Versteeg on the other wing.  This line could be a dangerous offensive threat, but Kulemin and Versteeg are also responsible defensively.  Unless Grabovski gets traded before opening night, Kadri will most likely start with the Marlies for 10-20 games to prove he can find his game again with the Leafs on the top two line.  When Kadri gets called up, expect Grabovski to get bumped to the 3rd line.

  • Kulemin last year was regarded as one of the most complete players last year.  He can successfully dig the puck out of the corner and has a nice physical side to his game.  Uses his body well in front of the but still lacks the finesse of  first line player.  Playing with Versteeg will give him ample opportunity to prove he earned his newly signed contract.  We can reasonably expect to see Kulemin break through this year and achieve 20+ goals and 30+ assists.
  • Grabovski is a pass first, pass second, shoot third type player who love to hold onto to puck.  The most disturbing aspect of Grabovski's game is his face-offs.  He is hovering below the 50% on most nights.  Mikahil is a talented offensive forward whom we can reasonably expect  20+ Goals and 30+ assists.  Given the contract he signed, Toronto should expect more from Grabovski thus far.  Grabovski has only two years left on his contract, so strong bounce back year could be in order.  Playing with Kulemin and Versteeg should help.  If he fails to deliver from the start, Kadri is knocking on the door waiting for the second line centre position.
  • Versteeg is your typical perimeter type goal scorer.  He will need Kulemin to create body presence in front of the net and Grabovski to find him in the opening.  Defensively, Versteeg's game is solid, last two seasons he was a plus player.  Versteeg will have more ice time compared to playing in Chicago.  We can reasonably expect 25+ goals and 35+ assists.

Our top six forwards are very capable of each player scoring 20+ goals.  You could not ask for better offensive balance from the top two lines.  The Leafs strength will come from defense and goalkeeping.  Keeping the opposing teams from scoring more than 2 goals per game is reasonable with a goal tending and defense group of:

DEFENSIVE PAIR 1:  Komisarek / Phaneuf
DEFENSIVE PAIR 2:  Kaberle / Schenn
DEFENSIVE PAIR 1:  Beauchemin / Lebda
Alternates: Gunnarsson

Take a look at Giguere numbers in the fifteen games with Toronto with a GAA=2.49 over 15 games.  Gustavsson managed to push down his GAA=2.87 before the season ended on an impressive end to the season.

To round out the bottom six forward, it could look something like the following.  Keep in mind that the bottom six forwards listed here are not limited to the player mentioned here.  Any rookie could surprise in training camp and stick with the team.

LINE 3: SJOSTROM / ZIGOMANIS (MITCHELL) / BROWN
  • Sjostrom is almost a lock for the third line left wing position.  
  • I suspect Mitchell will have to compete with Zigomanis for the centre duties on the third line.  Zigomanis is excellent at the faceoff and penalty killing during his stint with Pittsburgh.  With the Mariles, he potted 13 points in seven games!  With Djurgardens, not so spectacular only potting 11 points in 27 games.  Zigomanis could be a dark horse to make the lineup.  Burke has said he wants to change the culture of the Maple Leafs dressing room. 
  • Mike Brown is your typical defensive role player whom Brian Burke must have been keenly aware of his attributes.  Brown has good speed, can block shots, make hard checks and play with lots of testosterone and truculence.

LINE 4: CAPUTI / HANSON  (IRWIN) / ORR
  • Luca Caputi was acquired to be a top six forward, make no mistake about this.  He has both size and skill but still plagued by inconsistent play/skill and lacks a physical edge.  In the OHL, he became an offensive force potting 51 goals and 111 points in 66 games.  If Luca can play to his potential, he could bump Armstrong or Kulemin from the top two lines, but that could be wishful thinking.   Luca will most likely need to start using his other attributes and contribute in other ways to stick with the Leafs or find his way on the top line with the Marlies.
  • Brayden Irwin at 6' 5", 215 lbs will add a big body presence in front of opposing nets.  Irwin has the potential to be very good at the face off Brayden Irwin at 6' 5", 215 lbs will add a big body presence in front of opposing nets.  Irwin has the potential to be very good at the face off but if he ends up playing with the Leafs, it will be because Hanson played his way off.
  • Orr signed to be a team enforcer, nothing else.  Orr will be in the opening night lineup.

ALTERNATE: ROSEHILL


I would love to hear your thoughts.